2005: Slowdown or recession? (TT Oct04 p11-12)

A significant slowdown in growth in the second quarter of 2004 was marked in US and Asian countries such as Japan and China. An upsurge in oil prices caused by events such as the war in Iraq led to unsettled stock and bond markets but prices should fall by mid- 2005. Despite the rise in oil prices, consumer inflation will only rise slightly next year. The slowdown in the pace of expansion next year is expected to be significant but tolerable. n Oil prices are expected to come down gradually, interest rates will rise moderately and global pressures should ease.