Prospects for a short-term recovery (TT Dec03 p6-7)

Risks of recession and deflation have subsided, and a cyclical upturn is probable in the next six to nine months, but a strong and sustained global recovery is unlikely, and medium-term growth will remain subdued. In the UK, growth prospects have improved. However, overall, performance remains mediocre, and sharply worsening public finances highlight serious medium-term risks for the economy.