The Treasurer September 2008

The Treasurer September 2008

And your response is...

The first anniversary of the credit crunch failed to offer any sign that the conditions sending agonies through the world’s financial system are about to improve. When the crunch first struck, some dismissed it as little more than a temporary blip, focused largely on an overheated US property market. Few anticipated last autumn the reach and the severity of the problems that we are currently experiencing.

Now inextricably entangled with the effects of the financial markets freeze, volatile commodity prices and the spectre of resurgent inflation have compounded the effect. While there is little dispute about the immediate problems both in the financial and the real economy there is no consensus about how long and how severe the downturn will be.

While some are suggesting that normal service could be resumed within a relatively short time frame, the real doom-mongers are making comparisons with some of the most turbulent economic periods of the past 100 years.

The challenge for treasurers and for their companies peering out through the economic gloom is not to be too influenced by the constant drip-feed of bad news. As companies contemplate their future actions – acquisition, investment, expansion, job creation – they need to focus on the fundamentals of their business and their sector. This may seem obvious but it is easy to slip into a herd mentality, especially when all around appear to be gripped by panic.

In recent years treasurers have spent much of their time working with others on risk management, ensuring that a range of potential threats are understood and strategies in place to deal with them. The risks may have become greater and the unknowns more numerous but the basic premise remains: treasurers and others have to ensure that their companies are in shape to deal with more volatile conditions. An example of how changed circumstances are demanding changed thinking is the growing interest in asset-based lending as a way of raising capital (see Using Your Assets on page 22). It would be foolish to suggest that companies can still steam ahead in choppier economic waters but it would be a bad mistake if their confidence in the future of their markets eroded so badly that they all but shut up shop.

Caution is clearly required. While treasurers need to be alert to the real extent of the downside, they must refuse to allow their business to fall into an unnecessary slough of despond that diminishes the chances of emerging unscathed. As businesses return from the summer break, it is a time for cool heads to rule.

Peter Williams
Editor

marketwatch NEWS (TT Sep08 p4-6)

One year on, and the impact of the credit crunch has extended beyond the financial sector, new data from the Insolvency Service shows.

Banks are considering moving their corporate and individual customers to a Web 2.0 environment, according to a consultant’s report.

Merger and acquisition deals on both sides of the Atlantic in the first half of 2008 show a sharp decline on a year ago, figures from investment bank Robert W Baird suggest.

Pensions buy-out company Paternoster has expressed concern that the use of cash inducements by companies to incentivise defined benefit pension scheme members to transfer out of corporate pension schemes will lead to a significant loss of pension entitlement.

marketwatch KEY DEALS (TT Sep08 p7)

The world’s biggest retailer has looked to the East to prise open financial markets in the grip of the credit crunch. Wal-Mart, the giant US supermarkets group, has sold Y100bn of samurai bonds worth around $930m. Not only is it the largest such issue by a non-financial company this year, it reinforces the 2008 trend for foreign multinationals to tap the Japanese investment community. The issuing of samurai bonds – paper sold by foreign institutions to Japanese investors – is up by around 50% this year by value, making it the mst successful year for the securities since 2000.

marketwatch TECHNICAL UPDATE (TT Sep08 p8-10)

The summer holidays mark a definite slowdown in financial activity. It is particularly frustrating for treasury departments that want to make rapid progress on projects only to find that key people are away from their offices. For governments and the financial authorities across Europe nothing much happens in August, but the corollary is that officials clear their desks at the end of July and announce all manner of ideas and consultations, before heading off to the beach. For that reason this month’s Technical Update is distinctly overweight on a host of changes that might affect a corporate treasurer.

On the slide (TTSep08 p11-13)

The latest statistics on employment from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the unemployment rate had risen, the employment rate had fallen and the inactivity rate was unchanged. The number of job vacancies was also down. And a final indicator that life is getting tough was the news that growth in average earnings, both excluding and including bonuses, had fallen.

Building a collaborative model (TT Sep08 p14-15)

Building a collaborative model. Is supply chain management a challenge or an opportunity?
Darren Clark (Assistant Treasurer, Sainsbury’s), Dominic Broom (European Head of Global Trade Services at Bank of New York Mellon), Stuart Morrison (Chief Executive Officer at EZD Global) and Ulrike Rowbottom (Director of Strategic Projects at UTI Worldwide) provide some answers.

In stereo (TT Sep08 p16-18)

Both Sir David Tweedie and his son Mark recognise the importance of communication and are highly skilled at selling their message. As Sir David puts it: “Ultimately, you have to sell your products, whether that is some sort of financial product or an accounting standard.”

Building pressure (TT Sep08 p19-21)

The pressures for change in how foreign profits are taxed in the UK have been building for some time. Some of the pressure arises from the need to improve the international competitiveness of the UK tax regime, especially the controlled foreign companies (CFC) rules, which have come under attack for being too complex and far-reaching. The CFC regime has been in existence for more than 20 years and has been amended almost every year since its creation, which has obscured its original stated purpose. However, the most significant pressure on the government in this area has come from recent decisions of the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Using your assets (TT Sep08 p22-24)

Sal Settineri, managing director of capital markets at GE Commercial Finance, has no doubts at all about the virtues of asset-based lending. “It’s a good product in good times and a great product in tough times,” he says.

According to The Financial Times, the sector is “rising up the food chain” and has managed to shrug off the effects of the year-old credit crunch that continues to plague the markets. The industry was estimated to be worth more than £191bn at the end of 2007 and has continued to grow this year.

Credit where it's due (TT Sep08 p25-27)

At a time when the rate of business failures is accelerating, companies are more reliant than ever on accurate health checks of their major customers and suppliers. Since the onset of the credit crunch, more businesses have gone under, and larger companies are forcing their smaller suppliers towait even longer for payment.

Still bobbing along (TT Sep08 p28-29)

The year started with a very confusing picture, caused by two diametrically opposite effects. The slowdown in the economy led to nervousness and therefore less deal-making, and at exactly the same time fiscal changes in capital gains tax rates and non-domicile rules created a huge incentive for owners to sell their businesses. A few months ago, we were very unsure how things were going to turn out as the year progressed.

The ratings alphabet (TT Sep08 p30-31)

Standard & Poor’s ratings represent our opinion of the likelihood that a particular obligor or financial obligation will repay on time owed principal and interest. Put another way, we assess the likelihood, and in some situations the consequences, of default.

The weakest links (TT Sep08 p32-33)

Supply chains are increasingly international and complex. As a result, the risks involved, which once consisted mainly of safely moving goods from A to B and optimising inventory levels, have grown more numerous and complex. European and US consumers have developed a taste for foreign goods and companies have outsourced more production to cut costs. But as supply chains have become more intricate and effective, so have the associated risks. Companies can reduce input costs, but it will often be at the price of increasing their exposure to possible disruption. Supply chain risk was not only a main feature on the schedule at this year’s ACT conference, but very much in focus when insurance and risk managers met in Edinburgh this summer for the annual gathering of their representative body, AIRMIC.

Leading from the front (TT Sep08 p34-35)

The ACT’s MCT qualification is about judgement and independent strategic thinking. Focusing on those qualities, Simon Murray, a leading international businessman, spent some time with MCT students talking about life, business and leadership.

With little formal education Murray has reached the heights of the business world, working at top levels in sectors as varied as banking, energy and telecoms. His determination and can-do attitude is reflected in a thirst for challenges that has seen Murray, who served in the French Foreign Legion in Algeria in the 1960s, trekking through some of the harshest climates this planet has to offer. Perhaps if you survive and prosper in those sorts of conditions, dealing with difficult business problems is not quite as daunting.

A demanding role (TT Sep08 p36-38)

The amount and pace of change in the legislative and investment environments for pension schemes has highlighted the pressures on the role of trustee. So how should trustees be responding to the changes?

Something of the spotlight (TT Sep08 p39-41)

During June and July 2008, Mercer and the ACT approached chief financial officers (CFOs) and treasurers for the fourth annual survey on managing pension financial risk. As in previous years, the survey sought to determine the extent to which this group viewed pension schemes and their deficits as significant corporate risk issues, and their perception of stakeholder attitudes towards such risks. This year, 89 responses were received, with FTSE-350 companies well represented. This article summarises those responses. Several of the questions asked were deliberately similar to those of previous years, but we have again tried to address additional issues that have become increasingly high profile over the last 12 months.

In transition (TT Sept08 p42-44)

How is the credit crunch affecting pension investments? Should more companies take a serious look at the pension buy-out market? And what essential information on pension funds should be readily to hand for any treasurer? These were some of the issues addressed by this year’s ACT annual pensions conference in late June, chaired by Paul Thornton, a veteran of Watson Wyatt and now managing director of the pensions advisory team at Gazelle Corporate Finance.

Reach for the star (TT Sep08 p46)

Competency-based interviewing assesses a candidate’s suitability for a given role by analysing their past experiences to predict their future behaviour. By asking the candidate to give examples of past behaviour in work-related or real-life situations, it is thought that the candidate will demonstrate what their core competencies are, thereby highlighting how suited they are to the job.

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