That dreaded question. The UK joined the European Economic Community (EEC), the predecessor to the European Union, in 1973. Since then, every Conservative prime minister can trace their demise to the party’s divisions over the “European question”.
A staunch supporter of the UK membership of the EEC in 1975, Margaret Thatcher became increasingly Eurosceptic during her time in Number 10 and, by the end of her premiership, was openly hostile towards the concept of a European monetary union. She was brought down by the pro-EU wing of her party in November 1990.
Her successor, John Major, was wholeheartedly pro-EU. He fought hard against the Eurosceptic wing of his party for the implementation of the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s. Although he won the fight over Maastricht, he never recovered his authority after the Eurosceptics in his party tried, and failed, to fell him in 1995. His disunited party lost the 1997 election to a Labour led by Tony Blair.
The Conservative Party never settled on an answer to the European question during its 13 years out of office (1997-2010). After leading a coalition government from 2010 to 2015, David Cameron was forced to promise a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU to keep his Eurosceptic backbenchers onside for the 2015 election.
Voters rejected Cameron’s advice to remain in the EU. He resigned the day after the June 2016 referendum. Theresa May’s luck was no better. She resigned this July, having failed to unify her party and ratify the Brexit agreement she had negotiated with the EU.
Will Boris Johnson succeed where his predecessors failed? The backdrop does not look promising. He has just a one-seat working majority in the House of Commons. The Brexit wing of the Conservative Party will try to bring him down if he does not deliver on his “do or die” promise to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October – even if that means a no-deal outcome. Meanwhile, the pro-EU wing of his party threatens to bring the government down if he tries for a no-deal hard Brexit.
Despite a knack for salesmanship, he cannot simply rewrap the Brexit deal that May had negotiated and try his luck with it in parliament. That will not wash with MPs, who will surely reject it for a fourth time unless the contentious Irish backstop is renegotiated or removed. The EU, meanwhile, remains resolute that this will not happen.
The turf of politics is always tricky and tough to navigate, but the situation Johnson faces looks almost impossible.
Johnson assumed office on 24 July. A solid majority in the House of Commons remains against a hard Brexit. If he is on course for such an outcome when parliament returns from its summer recess on 3 September, MPs may try to bring him and his government down. That could end in disaster for Johnson unless he wins the snap election that would likely follow.
A Conservative leader falling victim to the party’s warring over Europe is now par for the course. But if Johnson falls soon, he could go down in history as the prime minister with the shortest tenure ever. Currently, that title goes to George Canning, a Tory prime minister who lasted just 119 days in 1827.
Johnson had better tread carefully or the history books will not be kind to him. As a keen historian, he is well aware of this. Whether Johnson has what it takes to avoid this fate, however, remains to be seen.
Kallum Pickering is senior economist at Berenberg Bank