This year we saw the dotcom recession, in which the spectacular puncturing of the technology stock bubble paved the way for a downturn in business and consumer confidence. Indeed, the downturn was global in nature as the US, Europe and Asia faced slower growth and rising unemployment for the first time since the early 1980s. There were other contributory factors, of course, such as the spike in the oil price to a peak of $36 during the 1999-2000 period (the fourth big spike in oil prices after 1974, 1970 and 1990). Typically, it takes about 18 months before sharp increases in the price of oil start to adversely affect the real economy and push unemployment rates up.
