Geopolitical tensions remain the single biggest external threat facing UK corporates heading into 2026, shaping balance sheet strategy, capital allocation and liquidity planning for finance leaders. According to Deloitte’s latest CFO survey, global political risks have held the top spot for three consecutive years, underlining how macro uncertainty continues to influence corporate decision-making even as business confidence stabilises.
According to the survey, perceptions of external uncertainty have eased slightly but remain elevated, and the strategic response from finance teams has shifted toward balancing risk management with selective investment.
The survey shows that 38% of CFOs still view external uncertainty as high or very high, though this marks an improvement from the previous quarter. Risk appetite has edged up but remains subdued, with only 15% saying now is a good time to take greater risk on to the balance sheet, still well below long-term averages.
Yet the data also points to a notable shift: finance leaders are increasingly willing to invest through uncertainty, especially in digital capabilities and artificial intelligence. Almost all CFOs (96%) expect UK companies to increase investment in digital technology and assets over the next five years, while 59% say they are more optimistic about AI’s ability to improve organisational performance.
Productivity expectations reinforce this trend. More than three-quarters of CFOs anticipate improvements in productivity and business performance over the next five years, suggesting that investment momentum could continue even amid geopolitical headwinds.
At the same time, expansionary strategies remain measured. Capital expenditure priorities have risen modestly but not dramatically, indicating that corporates are still balancing growth ambitions with caution. Business confidence remains negative overall, despite improving from recent lows, a reminder that optimism about technology does not fully offset macro risks.
... to realise the full value from AI, we must combine human skills with technology and upskill people, so nobody is left behind
Richard Houston, senior partner and chief executive of Deloitte UK, said: “CFOs are significantly more positive about improving performance through deploying AI and remain upbeat about technology investment over the medium term.
“We know technology was a big driver of US GDP in 2025 and we see real potential in the year ahead for AI to boost UK business performance and fuel growth. However, to realise the full value from AI, we must combine human skills with technology and upskill people, so nobody is left behind.”
Business sentiment is subdued but more positive than a year ago
The second highest rated risk relates to UK competitiveness and productivity, which remains at the highest level since the question was first asked in late 2014. The risk of higher energy prices or disruption to energy supplies rounds out CFOs’ top three risks for 2026.
Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte UK, said: “Business sentiment is subdued but more positive than a year ago. While CFOs remain cautious about geopolitics and productivity, business confidence and risk appetite have ticked up from their autumn lows and perceptions of external uncertainty have edged lower.”
Philip Smith is editor of The Treasurer
