The financial markets have been surprisingly upbeat in the final months of 2005. In spite of a marked slowdown in global economic growth and the adverse effect of major shocks (high oil prices, hurricanes and terrorism), stock markets rose in November to their best levels for three or four years. Prospects for 2006 and 2007 appear stable and benign, albeit mediocre. But the stability is wobbly, and the global economy still faces serious dangers.