What are the things that are interesting at the beginning of the year? Well, for my money, predictions are out. Having changed offices I was sorting out some stuff and leafing through back copies of The Treasurer.
The most notable was a forecast that the oil price would not go any higher (written before the 2005 spike). It was learned, accurate, well researched – and completely wrong.
Another turn-off is lectures on behaviour. As a former oil company treasurer and now a clergyman, I am used to predictions (and left professional finance, as it happens, as I became more cynical about the likelihood of accuracy) and have little confidence in the usefulness of exhortations to do better.