Guns, God and staying true to yourself (TT JanFeb06 p46)

What are the things that are interesting at the beginning of the year? Well, for my money, predictions are out. Having changed offices I was sorting out some stuff and leafing through back copies of The Treasurer.

The most notable was a forecast that the oil price would not go any higher (written before the 2005 spike). It was learned, accurate, well researched – and completely wrong.

Another turn-off is lectures on behaviour. As a former oil company treasurer and now a clergyman, I am used to predictions (and left professional finance, as it happens, as I became more cynical about the likelihood of accuracy) and have little confidence in the usefulness of exhortations to do better.

Scroll to top