If the run-up to last year’s (2024) ACT Middle East Treasury Summit in Dubai was coloured by the pending US election, this year feels more like the backdrop for a complex Hollywood thriller. With a packed agenda, delegates will contemplate everything from geopolitical scenario planning and US tariff fallout to currency-peg dynamics, cybersecurity threats, digital asset innovation and the surging mandates for sustainable finance.
“Regional tensions and geopolitical risk are a key consideration for treasurers’ agendas in 2025,” says James Adams, vice-president treasury at the Chalhoub Group in Dubai and the ACT Middle East Advisory Panel chair. His team has stepped up stress testing of key balance sheet and cash flow assumptions on the premise that supposed ‘once in a generation’ events are no longer that rare.
Oman’s ASYAD Group – a state-owned integrated logistics provider based in Muscat, the Omani capital – has woven these threats into its strategic playbook. Group CFO Muhsin Alrustom’s team models bunker fuel spikes, insurance premium hikes and trade volatility linked to potential tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, which ASYAD monitors closely given its critical regional role – though Oman’s Arabian Sea coastline provides relative insulation.
“Real-time visibility is more critical than ever,” Alrustom explains. “With enhanced liquidity buffers, diversified banking lines across regions, and active FX and bunker hedging strategies, we feel well positioned to weather the current climate.”
The evolving US trade agenda adds an unexpected twist. With the GCC thus far absent from the Trump administration’s so-called ‘reciprocal’ tariff list, Alrustom sees an opening for the region: “This is a moment to optimise trade flows and offer regional alternatives to congested or penalised corridors,” he says.
ASYAD’s treasury is modelling downstream exposure shifts through European and Asian trade corridors and factoring in credit-term flexibility. Aakash Gupta, client partner at UK and Dubai-based 4most Analytics Consulting, tells The Treasurer that scenario planning has transformed Middle East treasuries into strategic nerve centres: “Treasurers today aren’t treating geopolitical shocks as one-off events, they’re baking them into their day-to-day planning.” Teams now refresh risk models monthly, testing for oil supply interruptions, dollar-liquidity squeezes and currency-peg strains.
Gupta also flags supply chain vulnerabilities in countries facing potential political instability: “A lot of companies here have indirect exposure through partners in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon.” Treasury and procurement now co-chair risk forums, stress-test force majeure clauses and pre-identify alternative sourcing nodes before crisis strikes.
With enhanced liquidity buffers, diversified banking lines across regions, and active FX and bunker hedging strategies, we feel well positioned to weather the current climate
After years of rapid expansion fuelled by high oil prices, Gulf economies are pacing themselves for more moderate growth. Meanwhile, a 10% weakening of the US dollar in 2025 has shifted the economic dynamics for dollar-pegged GCC currencies. “Some sectors will gain a competitive edge as exporting to non-dollar markets becomes more attractive, while others – import-heavy industries, for instance – may face margin pressure,” warns Adams.
Meshal AlFaras, Dubai-based head of Middle East, Africa and Asia at Janus Henderson Investors, a global company with a strong Middle East presence, says Middle East liquidity buffers remain robust: “Banks maintain strong capital adequacy, and while there is no shortage of cash, regulatory requirements demand sufficient liquidity buffers during periods of uncertainty.”
Despite this ample liquidity, digital threats are rising. Dubai suffered the world’s largest crypto exchange hack in February, when the emirate’s cryptocurrency exchange, Bybit, lost around AED5.51bn ($1.5bn) worth of digital assets as hackers carried out a sophisticated attack – the biggest heist of its kind in the industry’s history.
Dr Mohammed Al Kuwaiti, head of cybersecurity for the UAE government, said after the incident: “We are working closely with treasury departments to ensure multi-factor authentication is standard, and AI-driven anomaly detection is embedded into payment systems to prevent future incidents.”
Alongside these defences, the US government’s recent pro-crypto pivot – underscored by March 2025 executive orders endorsing digital asset frameworks and pending stablecoin legislation in Congress – has only intensified Gulf interest in virtual currencies and assets, despite the Bybit raid.
Seasoned advisers caution that while stablecoins offer promising efficiencies, they also introduce new layers of risk. These include the composition of underlying collateral, the transparency of reserve attestations and the cyber-resilience of the platforms that support them. As a result, regional treasuries are actively stress testing token-based instruments alongside traditional FX, cash, and ESG frameworks to ensure operational integrity.
Nicoleta Remmlinger, director at 4most Analytics Consulting UAE, notes that regulatory and transactional approaches can vary across jurisdictions within the UAE: “It’s important for corporates and individuals alike to understand the nuances of these mechanisms before integrating them into treasury operations.”
In today’s environment, it’s less about predicting the next disruption and more about having flexible strategies that can adapt quickly
Crypto isn’t the only challenge. Trapped cash is also featuring on treasury agendas. For instance, Nora Naadu Sena, Nestlé’s regional treasurer for Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan and Turkey, highlights the ripple effects of trapped cash. “Cash and liquidity management becomes key in this case,” she explains. “As an FMCG that produces food, we must support distributors to ensure nutrition reaches affected populations. That means securing financing to extend payment terms – especially for smaller suppliers –and leveraging our ratings through distributor financing programmes.
“We also face trapped cash under bank restrictions or sanctions hindering fund flows. Treasurers, including myself, are proactively networking through forums and the ACT to share best practices and develop collective solutions.”
Underlying many responses is a fast-accelerating drive to upgrade technology. Real-time dashboards and AI-enabled forecasting tools now dominate treasury-tech road maps. “In today’s environment, it’s less about predicting the next disruption and more about having flexible strategies that can adapt quickly,” says Gupta.
Teams are automating FX-hedge rollovers and deploying machine learning engines to recalibrate credit lines as counterparties’ risk profiles shift. At the same time, treasurers are aligning funding plans with high profile GCC government development plans – such as Saudi Vision 2030 and Oman Vision 2040 – designed to ease economies off hydrocarbons.
Corporate treasury teams are structuring green and sustainability-linked bonds, sukuk and syndications, partnering with sovereign wealth funds and development finance institutions to secure long-term, low-cost funding for infrastructure, tourism and renewable-energy projects. Meanwhile, sustainable finance retains strong momentum, offering new opportunities to drive purpose and profit.
Gulf issuers have brought several new green, social and sustainability-linked bonds to market, financing everything from clean energy infrastructure to affordable housing. Treasurers are embedding ESG KPIs – carbon emissions, social impact metrics and diversity targets – into borrowing costs, tightening financing rates as performance improves.
Such a long-term view is encouraging. Despite the short-term challenges the region is facing, Gulf treasuries clearly think such threats can be managed and ridden out.
Emma Procter is a business journalist based in Dubai
This article first appeared in The Treasurer Issue 3, 2025