As corporate treasurers gather for the ACT Annual Conference 2026 (12-13 May 2026), geopolitical and economic expert David Lubin is likely to deliver a message that is both sobering and strategically vital. When he takes the stage, the focus will not be on short-term volatility, but on deeper structural shifts reshaping trade, capital flows and the cost of money.
Lubin, who serves as the Michael Klein Senior Research Fellow in the Global Economy and Finance Programme at Chatham House, points first to a surprising resilience in global trade. “The biggest surprise of the last 15 months… has been the resilience of the global economy, and in particular, the resilience of global trade,” he notes. Rather than collapsing under tariff pressure, trade has adapted: “What we’ve seen instead is a diversion rather than a destruction of global trade.”
For treasurers, this shift from efficiency to re-routing carries real financial implications. Supply chains are becoming more complex and potentially more costly, while visibility and predictability decline. More concerning, Lubin highlights a longer-term structural risk: “There is a question… about who is going to be supporting global trade in the years to come.” The retreat of the US from its traditional role as “importer of last resort” and China’s export-heavy model create what he calls a “clash of mercantilisms”.
This matters for treasury strategy because it raises the prospect of weaker global demand, fragmented trade blocs and higher financing costs. Lubin warns that the absence of a stabilising global power could undermine trade itself: “The loss of that consensus about how to organise global trade affairs… makes it difficult to be optimistic in the longer term.”
The combination of rising public debt and elevated interest rates is a really bad combination
On the financial side, his message is equally stark. Despite increasing restrictions on goods and people, capital has so far remained mobile, but that may not last. “We have to be wary… about the possibility that cross-border restrictions [on trade and freedom of movement] … might spread to include… capital,” he cautions. For treasurers, this raises the risk of trapped cash, funding constraints and greater emphasis on liquidity buffers and jurisdictional diversification.
Energy is another critical pressure point. With geopolitical tensions threatening supply routes, Lubin sees the likelihood of a lasting premium in oil prices: “We may be faced with… a more or less permanent security premium in the price of energy.”
The downstream effects are significant. Higher energy costs feed inflation, while governments respond with increased spending on security and resilience. The result is a dangerous macroeconomic mix: “The combination of rising public debt and elevated interest rates is a really bad combination.”
The world is not collapsing, but it is becoming more fragmented, more politicised and more expensive in which to operate
For treasurers, this translates into sustained borrowing costs, volatile yield curves and pressure on refinancing strategies. Scenario planning becomes essential, particularly for long-dated debt issuance and interest rate hedging.
Ultimately, Lubin’s message is one of cautious preparedness rather than panic. The world is not collapsing, but it is becoming more fragmented, more politicised and more expensive in which to operate. Treasurers, he suggests, must think beyond traditional cash management and embrace a broader, more strategic role in navigating geopolitical risk.
Lubin is clear that “no one is really a winner from a [US/Iran] war like this,” but China may be relatively shielded in the short term. Its continued access to Iranian oil, diversified energy mix and large reserves provide buffers, while “China has a problem… of inflation that’s uncomfortably low,” making higher energy prices less damaging domestically.
However, the risks remain external. “If the rest of the world economy suffers… then an export-led economy like China’s gets it in the neck.” For treasurers, this underscores the importance of monitoring China not just as a supply chain hub, but as a barometer of global demand.
Philip Smith is editor of The Treasurer
