Volatility has become a day-to-day reality for treasurers, with operational resilience now a strategic imperative in its own right. That’s one of the conclusions of the recent JP Morgan EMEA Treasurers Outlook.
Polling of finance leaders from 26 countries and 60-plus industries, gathered at J.P. Morgan's EMEA Treasurers Forum in London, found that the challenging macro environment is front of mind for corporate treasurers across the region. In addition, many believe that current conditions are now the status quo.
What’s top of mind for treasurers?
Top of mind for treasurers as they look to the second half of 2026 are geopolitical tensions, market volatility and cybersecurity risks.
Unsurprisingly, geopolitical tensions top the list of biggest challenges for long-term business planning, with more than half saying so (53.66%). One quarter cited market volatility as a key challenge (26.83%).
When asked about their sentiment for the remainder of the year, just over half (56.1%) felt that the macro environment would remain the same, but almost a third (32.93%) said global economic conditions would worsen.
“Over the next 12 months, and especially into the second half of 2026, treasury teams will likely stay focused on resilience, liquidity, and improving cash flow. With volatility in rates, geopolitics, and markets, it helps to run with stress-tested cash and funding assumptions, so teams have a clear view of what breaks, when, and what actions to take,” advises Sara Castelhano, head of UK, Europe & Canada Treasury Services, at JP Morgan Payments.
Despite the caution, corporate activity is not expected to stall. More than 40% of respondents anticipate an increase in M&A activity in the second half of 2026 compared with the first, while more than 30% expect it to hold steady.
“The survey from JP Morgan is consistent with conversations we have had with treasurers,” notes Naresh Aggarwal, associate director, policy and technical, Association of Corporate Treasurers.
“Downside risks are outweighing potential upsides and AI is adding to a general sense of uncertainty over what lies ahead. Those raising financing seem to be moving as soon as possible rather than waiting for the market to settle or for conditions to improve and securing funding seems more important for many companies than hoping to save a few basis points.”
Although the survey sees employee productivity as being more important than automation, these two can be argued as being very similar and most treasurers we speak with see automation as a key goal of AI which will lead to increased productivity and better controls
The survey also found AI and tokenisation shifting from experimentation to targeted implementation.
When asked what impact technology was having on their organisation most (63.41%) expect employee productivity to be the area most affected in the next year. Automated reporting (45.12%), and financial forecasting and planning (35.37%) were next on the list of areas with the most impact. Only 6.1% said that they didn’t expect AI to have a material impact on their business.
“Although the survey sees employee productivity as being more important than automation, these two can be argued as being very similar and most treasurers we speak with see automation as a key goal of AI which will lead to increased productivity and better controls,” says Aggarwal.
The survey found similar pragmatism on tokenisation, with respondents drawn less to the technology itself than to what it removes: nearly 40% cited avoiding traditional cut-off windows as the main benefit. Aggarwal is more circumspect.
“The survey suggests that a significant proportion of the population see tokenisation as offering benefits – especially with its 24/7 capability. However this does not reflect the treasury community in the UK where the benefits of tokenisation seem far more limited (though this could reflect their lack of interest in this area).”
Businesses remain under pressure to cut costs as part of their strategy and treasurers are not immune from this
Treasurers say that, for the next 12 months, they are focused on improving cash flow and working capital (54.88%), implementing new technologies (41.46%) and reducing costs (37.8%). This gives treasurers three imperatives, says JP Morgan: managing risk with discipline, building a solid foundation for digital adoption, and prioritising robust resiliency.
“The top three priorities from the survey reflect what we are hearing from our treasury community,” says Aggarwal. “Businesses remain under pressure to cut costs as part of their strategy and treasurers are not immune from this.”
“No-one can predict the future, so the best approach is to be ready, have the visibility to see what’s changing and the control to act quickly and consistently,” adds Castelhano.
“This is strongest when backed by practical playbooks, clear escalation paths, and regular cyber and fraud testing. AI and tokenisation are moving from pilots to targeted rollouts in forecasting, payments operations, and controls, but they only scale with reliable data, clear ownership, and solid governance.”
Alex Gray is editor of The Treasurer
